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New York Governor Kathy Hochul still leads in the race for governor, but her advantage over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman is shrinking — and the numbers suggest the November contest could be tighter than many Democrats expected.
According to the Siena Research Institute, Hochul leads Blakeman 51% to 31% among registered voters — a 20-point gap that has narrowed from 26 points in January. Hochul's favorability has also dipped, falling from 49-40% in January to 46-42%, though her job approval rating holds relatively steady at around 52-53%.
Blakeman, the Nassau County executive and likely Republican nominee, remains largely unknown to New York voters. The Siena poll found that 61% of New Yorkers have either never heard of Blakeman or have no opinion of him. His favorability has ticked up slightly, from 18-20% in January to 21-18% — a modest but notable shift.
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg noted the challenge ahead for Blakeman. "As for Blakeman, there are less than 250 days until election day and he has a lot of voters to educate," Greenberg said. "Only two in five voters know enough about him to say whether they view him favorably or unfavorably — and they're closely divided."
Greenberg also pointed to a surprising finding from the poll, which asked respondents to react to three quotes from Hochul and three from Blakeman without identifying who said what. Majorities of both Republicans and Democrats responded positively to all six statements. "Maybe — just maybe — voters don't really disagree as much as it appears that they do," Greenberg said. "Maybe the divisions in our politics are more related to the ideological and media silos that voters place themselves in, rather than the actual words and promises from the candidates."
Meanwhile, an internal poll circulated by Blakeman's campaign — conducted by McLaughlin & Associates — paints an even more competitive picture. That poll, which surveyed likely voters rather than registered voters, shows Blakeman trailing Hochul by just nine points, 52%-43%. Among the likely voters who were familiar with both candidates, Blakeman actually led Hochul 53%-44%.
Republican strategist David Catalfamo said the results reflect voter frustration with the cost of living in New York. "It's obvious: people are being crushed by affordability and they're unhappy about it," Catalfamo told City & State. "That's why Hochul's been historically vulnerable and remains vulnerable."
Catalfamo also argued that Blakeman — who is pro-choice and open to gun control — may be more appealing to independent and undecided voters than former Republican gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin was in 2022. "I don't expect this great love affair with Bruce Blakeman, to be honest," Catalfamo said. "I expect voters to say there's no other way to judge it. What we have is not working, it's not sustainable, let's try this."
Former Federal Transit Administration head Marc Molinaro, who lost to former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the 2018 governor's race, expressed confidence in Blakeman's chances. "To win, Bruce must be the answer to the question every New York family is asking: Why are we still here?" Molinaro told City & State. "And he can win."
Hochul's campaign pushed back sharply. "While Gov. Hochul keeps putting money back in New Yorkers' pockets, Bruce Blakeman's MAGA brainrot campaign is somehow going worse than anyone expected," campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki said in a statement.
Hochul won the 2022 governor's race by just six points — the narrowest margin in nearly three decades — and has since acknowledged she needs to outperform that result to help Democratic candidates running for lower offices. Speaking at a Women's History Month event in Albany, Hochul told supporters, "As the top of the ticket, I know I need to really overperform to help people that are down-ballot from me."
The Blakeman campaign's internal polling memo was blunt about the stakes. "These are ominous results for the Democratic incumbent governor," it read. "More important, the results provide a path to victory for Bruce Blakeman. With enough resources Bruce Blakeman can define himself to the electorate and defeat Kathy Hochul in November."
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