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A new internal poll commissioned by Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman's campaign shows the New York governor's race tightening, with the Republican challenger now trailing Democratic incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul by just nine points.
According to the New York Post, the poll — conducted by McLaughlin & Associates — shows Hochul pulling 52% support among likely voters, while Blakeman earns 43%. That gap has closed significantly compared to earlier surveys and, according to the pollster's own memo, spells trouble for the governor heading into the November election.
"These are ominous results for the Democratic incumbent governor," McLaughlin & Associates wrote in the memo to the Blakeman campaign. "More important, the results provide a path to victory for Bruce Blakeman. With enough resources Bruce Blakeman can define himself to the electorate and defeat Kathy Hochul in November."
The internal poll stands in sharp contrast to the most recent public survey. As reported by City & State New York, Siena University's latest poll — conducted late last month — had Blakeman trailing Hochul by 20 points, 51% to 31%. However, that poll surveyed registered voters rather than likely voters, and a large share of those surveyed remained undecided. Among likely voters who were familiar with both candidates, the McLaughlin poll shows Blakeman actually leading Hochul, 53% to 44%.
Blakeman, the likely GOP nominee, is a Long Island Republican who describes himself as pro-choice and open to gun control — positions that could make him more appealing to independent and undecided voters than past Republican challengers. Still, one of his biggest hurdles remains name recognition. The McLaughlin poll found that only six in 10 likely voters had heard of both candidates.
In a separate January poll by John Zogby Strategies, Hochul led Blakeman 53% to 39% — a margin Blakeman cited as evidence he is gaining momentum. He also claimed that public university polls from Siena and Marist undercount Republican support.
"It's a close race," Blakeman said. "People are miserable with Kathy Hochul as governor. I'm going to win."
He accused Hochul of being responsible for what he called New York's high taxes and utility costs, and accused the governor and state Democrats of trying to block him from qualifying for public matching campaign funds on technical grounds. "New York is the most highly taxed and most regulated state in America," he said.
Republican strategist David Catalfamo told City & State that affordability concerns are driving Hochul's vulnerability. "It's obvious: people are being crushed by affordability and they're unhappy about it," Catalfamo said. "That's why Hochul's been historically vulnerable and remains vulnerable." He added that any budget moves Hochul makes to lower costs are coming too late for voters to feel their impact before Election Day.
Former Federal Transit Administration head Marc Molinaro, who challenged and lost to former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in 2018, also weighed in. "To win, Bruce must be the answer to the question every New York family is asking: Why are we still here?" Molinaro said. "And he can win."
Hochul's campaign pushed back sharply. Spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki said in a statement: "While Governor Hochul keeps putting money back in New Yorkers' pockets, Bruce Blakeman's MAGA brainrot campaign is somehow going worse than anyone expected as he defends Trump's ICE, champions Trump's expensive, illegal tariffs, and doubles down on Trump's fight to gut Medicaid."
Hochul herself has acknowledged the stakes, telling a Women's History Month event in Albany earlier this week that she knows she needs to "really overperform" to help Democratic candidates running down-ballot from her. The governor narrowly beat Republican Lee Zeldin by just six points in 2022 — the closest gubernatorial race in nearly three decades — and many observers blamed her underperformance that year for dragging down Democratic congressional candidates across the state.
With Election Day less than eight months away, Blakeman still faces the challenge of boosting his name recognition and keeping pace with Hochul's tens of millions of dollars in campaign fundraising.
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