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A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll projected Donald Trump nine points up on Joe Biden in a projected rematch for the presidency. With over a year to go until Election Day 2024, does this poll signify a trend, or is it just an outlier that means little in the big picture? Geoffrey Skelley is the senior elections analyst at ABC News and FiveThirtyEight.com. He appeared on 710 WOR’s Len Berman and Michael Riedel in the Morning program to say definitively that anything’s possible.
“With polling, you’re going to sometimes get results that do fall pretty far away from where the results that we’re seeing in other polls (are),” Skelley told Berman and Riedel. “Probably the safest thing to do with that survey is to say… maybe it’s a slightly more Republican-leading poll, but at the same time, you know, it’s in the general vicinity, at least in terms of [Biden’s] approval rating, and that 41% national polling average for approval is not a good place to be for an incumbent president seeking re-election.”
Overall, though, Skelley feels that even though we know the candidates, it’s still too early to tell who has the edge. “People are very familiar with these candidates, so in some ways that might narrow the volatility of this race. But, at the same time there are a lot of things that we don’t know about that are going to happen between now and November of 2024 if they do indeed face off; you know, how well the economy is going to be, what’s the state of war and peace… also, there is Trump’s legal situation, I mean, look, there are many, many things we can’t possibly predict just how they will play out.”
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